PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron may be notorious as a great political disruptor but — when it comes to Brussels — he’ll probably allow things to stay just as they are and back a second term for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
In the run-up to Sunday’s EU election, France was conspicuously silent about whether it would back Germany’s von der Leyen to stay at the helm of the EU executive, sparking concerns he could be eyeing a rabbit-out-of-the-hat alternative. His close ally Pascal Canfin told POLITICO last month: “France and everyone in the presidential ecosystem would like [former Italian PM Mario] Draghi to play a role.”
But few people expect a big curveball from Macron now, after his liberals were crushed by the far right in the EU election and he made a maverick decision to call a French legislative election — in two rounds on June 30 and July 7. He is now expected to focus on his political battles in France rather trying to shake up the top table in Brussels, several French and EU officials told POLITICO.
Three French officials said Macron was poised to throw his weight behind von der Leyen, while six other EU officials and diplomats said his hand would also be weakened in discussions over who would hold the EU’s other top jobs over the next five years.
In contrast to Macron’s political weakness, von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party is on course to be easily the biggest bloc in the European Parliament after Sunday’s EU election, massively boosting her chances of a return to leading the Brussels executive.
“The EPP scored a big victory in the election and the von der Leyen option is very much reinforced,” a French official with knowledge of the top jobs’ negotiations told POLITICO.
“There is no doubt now over the political color of the next Commission presidency,” said the same official who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic.
A French minister on Monday agreed “the main scenario” was that Macron would back von der Leyen in exchange for concessions on France’s policy targets. The fact that “the EPP has made gains and the majority [backing von der Leyen] has shrunk less that expected” has boosted von der Leyen’s chances of a second mandate.
In Brussels, a senior EPP member said Macron is now weakened among his European colleagues, so will have to be more constructive. “He will have zero support in the European Council if he wants to topple von der Leyen,” they said.
An EU diplomat also said that if the EPP suggests von der Leyen as a candidate, it’s difficult to see how Macron could push against that now.
Any French games of floating other names for European Commission President, such as Draghi or European Parliament President Roberta Metsola can stop now, a second EU diplomat said. “They were very transparent tactics to keep up their relevance. But the situation is different from 2019. There is a clear frontrunner now.”
Deal not done yet
But Macron’s defeat also carries risks, other officials and diplomats warned, especially since the unpredicatble French President called the wildcard national election on snap election.
The French legislative election campaign will coincide with the European top job carve-up, which the EU hopes to conclude by the European Council on June 27-28. There is always a risk that Macron would stir things up in Brussels for reasons of domestic campaigning, perhaps not wanting to be seen as fully aligned with von der Leyen.
“You know the French,” a third EU diplomat said. “They always go all-in. They are shameless in their starting negotiating positions.”
Giacomo Filibeck, the secretary general of the Party of European Socialists, hinted at this scenario at a POLITICO event on Monday.
“I understand that there are national problems,” Filibeck said. “And I may even understand that there are some national leaders may have the ambition of trying to jeopardize something that happens at the European Council level for some local domestic interests,” he said.
In the end, Macron remains the French president, diplomats conceded, with all the symbolic importance and political weight behind that position.
Didrik de Schaetzen, secretary-general of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe group, dismissed the impact of the national vote on Macron’s influence around the European Council table at the same POLITICO event, arguing the effect of domestic issues has less an impact in the leaders’ discussions. “These individuals are there, and they will fight for our political family.”
Another French official also pushed back against Macron being weakened around the European Council table, arguing Macron remains the French president at the leaders’ table.
As far as the trade-off for support goes, according to two officials, France now wants assurances from von der Leyen that her mandate will include a strong focus on industrial policy and satisfy Paris’ demand to allow more subsidies to support the bloc’s economy.
Last month, Macron delivered an alarming speech calling on Europeans to massively invest in strategic areas, such as Artificial Intelligence and renewables in order to compete against China and the U.S.
Jakob Hanke Vela, Jacopo Barigazzi, Nicholas Vinocur, Elisa Braun and Eddy Wax contributed reporting.
Macron’s loss in France boosts prospect of second term for von der Leyen
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