BERLIN — Friedrich Merz’s conservative alliance has won Germany’s national parliamentary election, while the far right has recorded its highest-ever showing.
The conservatives, consisting of Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), look set to finish far ahead of all other parties with 29 percent, according to a projection based on the first results counted.
Merz declared victory a few minutes after these figures were released at 6:30 p.m. in Berlin.
“The world out there is not waiting for us, nor is it waiting for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations,” Merz told party supporters in the German capital. “We must now quickly regain our ability to act so that we can do the right thing at home, so that we are once again present in Europe, so that the world can see that Germany is being governed reliably again.”
Sunday’s vote saw the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) — a party with strong anti-migration and pro-Russia stances — projected to come second on 19.6 percent. It would be its best result in a national election in Europe’s most powerful country, sending shock waves through the continent.
Alice Weidel, the AfD’s candidate for chancellor, described it as an “historic success.”
“We will hound the others to make sensible policies for our country,” she said, adding she was open to participating in a coalition government with the CDU — something that Merz has ruled out.
Performance of small parties will be key to stability of coalition
The projections of the outcome based on voter counts will be finessed as the evening goes on. Near-final results should be confirmed before midnight in Berlin.
The performance of smaller parties — The Left party, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the populist-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) — will be crucial to how easy Merz can form a coalition, and how stable it will be. The parties need to surpass 5 percent to make it into the Bundestag, the lower house of the German Parliament.
According to the projection, released by broadcaster ARD, the Left party, on 8.6 percent, will definitely make it into the Bundestag. The FDP is forecast to get 4.9 percent, making it too close to call. BSW also currently falls short of the threshold, but only just, on 4.7 percent.
If at least two of those three parties make it into parliament, Merz’s life will be complicated when he starts to negotiate a coalition because it would likely mean he needs a three-party government instead, making it far tougher to reach an agreement to force through his own policies. If two of those parties fall below the threshold, Merz may be able to form a coalition with just one other party.
Merz is Angela Merkel’s bitter rival
Merz’s rise to power could scarcely come at a more critical time for Europe. U.S. President Donald Trump’s upending of the post-World War II order ― by often siding with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, raising questions over the U.S. commitment to defending Europe and offering support to far-right populists ― means Merz’s tenure as chancellor looks likely to be the most significant of any since the Cold War.
Merz will become Germany’s first center-right leader since Angela Merkel stepped down in 2021. Although they come from the same party, they are bitter rivals and during the election campaign she criticized Merz for his dalliance with the hardline policies of the far right and for ending the longstanding commitment not to rely on their votes in parliament
The AfD’s historic second-place finish, according to the projection, nearly doubles its 2021 result. The party is on course to become the biggest opposition force in parliament as all mainstream parties have ruled out entering a coalition with it.
The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) of incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to record its worst performance in a national parliamentary election since adopting its current name in 1890, finishing in third with 16 percent.
“This time the election result is bad and that is why I am also responsible for this election result,” outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz said. “The fact that an extreme right-wing party like the AfD is getting such election results in this country must never be something we accept.”
The center-left Greens, which have governed in coalition with the SPD, came in fourth with 13.3 percent.
The vote took place seven months ahead of schedule, following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD-led coalition late last year. Some 630 parliamentary seats are up for grabs, to be distributed proportionally.
Merz declares victory in German election
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