BERLIN — Past German governments sought to temper Europe’s most hardline impulses on migration. Now, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Berlin is vying to lead Europe’s anti-immigration charge.
The stark shift in Germany’s migration stance under its new government promises to accelerate the EU’s hard-right turn on migration as the bloc prepares to implement a series of new measures aimed at drastically reducing the number of asylum seekers entering Europe — and deporting more of those who do make it. As European leaders negotiate on how to put these measures into place, those from some of the EU’s most hardline countries are welcoming Germany’s new role.
“Germany is leading in some of these very important talks,” Kaare Dybvad, Denmark’s immigration minister, told POLITICO. “We’re happy about that.”
In a highly symbolic example of how Germany’s government is now seeking to propel Europe’s migration shift rather than moderate it, Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt recently hosted counterparts from several European countries with tough migration stances — including Austria, Denmark and Poland — on his country’s highest mountain in the Bavarian Alps, the Zugspitze, adorned at its summit with a golden cross.
“We want to make it clear that Germany is no longer in the brakeman’s cab when it comes to migration issues in Europe but is part of the driving force,” Dobrindt said at an elevation of nearly 3,000 meters.
That message is being received well in Brussels.
“If Germany contributes more, becomes more committed, that’s very, very positive, because we’ll simply make progress faster,” EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner told POLITICO from the sidelines of the summit in Bavaria. “And that’s why I’m very pleased that the German government has chosen this path and is also strongly supporting the Commission in implementing the things we’ve put forward.”
Germany’s new willingness to lead Europe’s anti-immigration front removes one key obstacle preventing European countries from enacting policy proposals that were until recently deemed beyond the pale. Those include plans to deport migrants to third countries and to process asylum claims outside the EU, emulating the U.K.’s failed Rwanda scheme, which Merz previously praised as “something we could emulate.”
While Germany’s migration shift began under its previous left-leaning government, Merz’s coalition, under rising pressure from the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) — now the largest opposition party in Germany’s Bundestag — is taking a far harder course to stem the defection of conservative voters to the far right.
“Over the past years, Germany really was one of the main holdouts across the EU that stood up for the post-war asylum system,” said Ravenna Sohst, a policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute. “With Germany now joining other [hardline] member states, the balance of what is considered mainstream European migration policy is shifting to the right.”
Key European divisions
Germany’s conversion does not mean that Europe is now united on immigration. In fact, when it comes to applying strict asylum rules, internal rifts remain.
While European leaders agreed on a framework to toughen asylum rules in a landmark agreement two years ago, details remain to be ironed out before the plan is rolled out next year. Difficult questions persist concerning mandatory burden sharing and the relocation of asylum seekers within the bloc as well as asylum procedures beyond the EU’s external borders.
In these matters, the interests of Southern and Northern European countries don’t necessarily align. Under Merz, Germany is expected to pursue more robustly what its leaders regard as national interests and the interests of Central and Northern Europe — even at the expense of others.
Germany’s previous left-leaning coalition under former Chancellor Olaf Scholz played a key role in mediating among countries like Greece and Italy — which want more European help in handling the influx of asylum seekers through their shores — and the leaders of nations further north — whose governments want to ensure asylum seekers aren’t able to leave Southern Europe and come to their countries. Within that dynamic, Merz may now advocate the interests of Central and Northern European countries far more robustly.
The Zugspitze meeting, where no Southern European leaders were present, illustrates that very point, migration experts say.
“Germany still, and always has, promoted a very European approach,” Sohst said. “The Zugspitze summit shows how they are creating key groups within the EU that then have a bigger weight in the negotiations, in the Council, to push through key positions. That’s very strategic, also in terms of the countries they select, for example by getting France and Denmark [which currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency] on board.”
Merz’s willingness to put perceived German interests ahead of European cohesion became evident shortly after his government took office and moved to drastically bolster checks on the country’s national borders — angering its neighbors and the Polish government in particular, which took retaliatory measures.
Disunity within Merz’s coalition
Germany’s migration turn comes as the number of asylum seekers arriving in Europe is dropping for myriad reasons, though still high by historic standards.
It’s for this reason that Merz’s coalition, fearing the AfD, has adopted a series of controversial migration measures since taking power in May. The government has moved to suspend family reunification for hundreds of thousands of people in Germany — including many migrants from Syria — and suspended a resettlement program for vulnerable Afghans.
“Rhetorically, things have become tougher, and the policies have become tougher too,” said Victoria Rietig, a migration expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
But divisions within Merz’s coalition may still foil his plans to stay the course.
Many lawmakers from the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which governs with the conservatives, are uncomfortable with Merz’s moves on migration, though they agreed to many of them in outline form during coalition negotiations. SPD politicians have been critical of Merz’s moves on border checks and the suspension of the Afghan resettlement program.
“There isn’t a single person [in the SPD’s parliamentary group] who is a fan of the security-oriented policy measures in the coalition agreement, especially in the migration chapter,” said SPD lawmaker Rasha Nasr.
The issue is shaping up to be a key area of conflict within the government when lawmakers reconvene in the fall. That’s when they will consider proposals to expand the list of safe countries to which migrants can be deported and the elimination of publicly-provided legal counsel for migrants slated for deportation.
The SPD may rebel against some of Merz’s stricter measures at home, and may try to stop him from becoming the leader of the EU’s hardliners on migration abroad.
“This is one of the difficult issues in the coalition,” Rietig said. “That’s why I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that future migration decisions at the EU level could still be delayed.”
Germany is now leading the charge on Europe’s anti-immigration turn
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