6 issues that will shape Ursula von der Leyen’s legacy
With 3 years left in her term, the Commission boss must revive Europe’s industry, defend its rules, bolster security, support Ukraine, expand the bloc — and pay for it all.
By ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH
in Brussels
Illustration by Eva Redamonti for POLITICO
Ursula von der Leyen has three years left to cement her legacy, but it’ll be far from easy.
Von der Leyen’s second term ends in 2029, by which time she’ll have been at the helm of the European Commission for a decade. If, as Brussels Playbook reported earlier this summer, the EU executive chief won’t seek a third term, then she’s in the final stretch of her career in Brussels.
Her time in office has been dominated by crisis management — Covid-19, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sky-high energy prices, war in Gaza. In the years to come, the challenges will likely keep mounting, including competition from China and the United States, and upcoming elections in France, Spain, Italy and Poland that could reshape the EU.
In the Commission’s Berlaymont HQ, von der Leyen and her team are feverishly working on her State of the EU speech, to be delivered on Sept. 16. It’s when she will set out her plan for the years to come. After that, she’ll have to deliver.
“Speeches are important. But it’s the actions that create legacy,” said Martin Hojsík, a vice president of the European Parliament from the Renew Europe group.
“Europe has become more vulnerable economically, competitiveness remains a major challenge, social and regional inequalities persist, and too often her Commission has reacted to crises rather than anticipated them,” said Victor Negrescu, a Parliament vice president from the Socialists and Democrats group. “I expect her to use this moment to defend her record, but also to explain how Europe can deliver more on growth, investment, social cohesion and strategic autonomy. For me, the real question is not how her legacy is presented, but what concrete results Europeans will see by the end of this mandate.”
Here are six potential headaches likely to define von der Leyen’s remaining time in office.
1. Reversing Europe’s decline
Will von der Leyen be able to stem the Continent’s economic decline … or oversee the death of its industrial heartlands?
It was von der Leyen who asked former Italian PM and European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi to draw up a report into the continent’s competitiveness. He was brutal in his assessment, saying that “without action, we will have to either compromise our welfare, our environment or our freedom.” He called on Europe to invest an additional €800 billion a year to drag itself out of a trough of low productivity and feeble growth that’s pushing it behind the U.S. and China in the international pecking order.
Von der Leyen promised to turn Draghi’s warning into an industrial strategy, but the headwinds are strong. European companies face high energy prices, fragmented capital markets, complex regulation and intensifying competition from abroad.
And while European companies need Chinese markets and supply chains, that dependency comes at a high cost. State subsidies have allowed Chinese firms to build capacity that far exceeds domestic demand, and their EVs, batteries, solar panels and steel are putting pressure on EU rivals. Meanwhile, Beijing’s stranglehold over critical minerals used in the green transition and high-tech sectors creates vast danger.
“What you have seen with the EU position on relations with China is the status quo is far too heavily tilted in China’s favor and cannot endure,” said a Commission official, granted anonymity to speak freely. “At EU level, there’s now near-total agreement on diagnosing the problems. There is near-total agreement on what the solutions are to address those problems. The only remaining question is how robust are member states willing to be in their follow-through.”
Von der Leyen’s dilemma is how to keep the Chinese market open while preventing overcapacity from hollowing out EU industry.
The Commission is overseeing a reset in China relations, while considering stronger trade-defense tools and measures to reduce supply-chain dependence. It’s a delicate balance: too much confrontation could trigger a damaging trade war; too little could leave Europe without a viable industrial base.
Brussels and Beijing are engaged in talks to resolve the issue. Trade chief Maroš Šefčovič has set an October deadline to make progress. Failure could mean that China becomes the next front in the trade war.
2. Protecting EU regulations from Trump
Can von der Leyen rein in Big Tech without every European decision on competition, data, digital sovereignty or child safety becoming a transatlantic confrontation?
The Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act are in their enforcement phase, and the EU’s fines against Apple, Meta and Google have already infuriated Washington. Von der Leyen is pushing ahead with plans to restrict children under 13 from using social media, which could provoke Donald Trump further.
“We would not presume to tell the U.S. how to regulate on their sovereign territory. And that is the very fair and coherent thing we ask for in return,” said the Commission official quoted above.
3. Addressing the climate crisis while slashing green rules
The Green Deal was the defining project of von der Leyen’s first term. But with far-right forces surging around the EU and an outcry that green rules are adding to Europe’s industrial strain, von der Leyen is now being forced to undo the very policies she implemented.
Farmers have hit the streets of Europe; industry and governments are demanding simplification. But Europe is facing extreme heat waves, wildfires, and worsening climate risks that make environmental action more urgent than ever.
If von der Leyen weakens the Green Deal too much, she risks losing credibility with citizens and her coalition partners. If she insists on ambitious rules, she could provoke more political backlash.
“Some environmental policies were adopted without thinking about the social issues,” acknowledged Marie Toussaint, a French Green MEP. “How to heat your home? For some people the bills are already impossible to pay. So we need to ensure that in every sector we have this social concern and we refrain from adopting anything that would worsen people’s lives.”
4. Defending Europe and Ukraine
Europe’s security debate has moved from speeches about “strategic autonomy” to the urgent question of where to get weapons and deter Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The EU is increasing defense spending, backing joint procurement and trying to expand industrial capacity through initiatives such as the €150 billion SAFE program. But national governments still disagree over how much to spend and how to spend it.
The test is whether Europe can build a defense industry that can stand on its own, given the Trump administration’s repeated undermining of NATO.
Von der Leyen will also need to ensure that Ukraine enters any potential peace negotiations with Russia in the best position possible.
“We know exactly how to talk to Russians,” said Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna. “Pressure, no compromises, and only from [a position of] strength.”
That means von der Leyen must ensure Ukraine gets financial and military support as well as credible long-term security guarantees, while keeping the Trump administration onside.
But while in Brussels support for Ukraine remains high, more Kremlin-friendly governments have won power around the EU, with the potential for others to join them after a series of elections in 2027, including in France and Italy.
“We operate in the real world. We have to take political reality and political developments into account in the work we do,” said the Commission official. Regardless, they added, “President von der Leyen will continue to make the case for Ukraine because that’s clearly in Europe’s best interest.”
5. Expanding the EU
Ukraine, Moldova and countries in the Western Balkans have moved closer to the EU, but political support for enlargement is not the same as readiness to admit new members.
Candidate countries must still complete difficult reforms on the rule of law, corruption and judicial independence. Current EU members worry about the cost of enlargement, future funding needs and whether the institutions can function with more than 30 members.
But von der Leyen needs to show that accession is still a credible process rather than a permanently postponed promise, before the countries in the EU’s waiting room run out of patience and look elsewhere for alliances.
“We deserve to be in a much more advanced position than we are right now,” North Macedonia’s Foreign Minister Timčo Mucunski said about his country’s stalled bid to join the EU. “To say that we have been treated unfairly is an understatement.”
6. Paying for it all
The EU’s next long-term budget will determine which of these headaches von der Leyen can actually treat.
The Commission proposed an almost €2 trillion budget for 2028–2034, but two entrenched camps are battling over the plan.
The so-called Friends of Cohesion — among them Italy, Greece, Poland and Spain — want more money for traditional spending areas, particularly cohesion policy and the Common Agricultural Policy, and want those funds delivered through familiar national and regional channels.
The other camp, made up of frugal countries including Germany, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands, wants less spending and a different allocation of cash: more for innovation, defense and European industrial capacity.
The fight collides with the political calendar.
A cadre of the EU’s biggest countries will hold elections in 2027, including France, Italy, Spain and Poland. Some politicians will be reluctant to explain to voters why they should send more money to Brussels; others why traditional funding should be reduced.
Yet the new EU budget (known as the Multiannual Financial Framework) must take effect on Jan. 1, 2028. That means the deal needs to be negotiated well in advance.
The closer it gets to 2027, the more domestic politics will dominate the talks — and the harder it will be to secure unanimity in the Council and consent from the European Parliament.
“When it comes to MFF negotiations, endgame negotiations are always tough, but it always gets done,” said the Commission official. “Those exact motivations [2027 elections] are fantastic factors to get the job done now.”
Eliza Gkritsi, Seb Starcevic, Max Griera and Mathieu Pollet contributed to this story.
6 issues that will shape Ursula von der Leyen’s legacy
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