PARIS — France’s messy budget debate, which ended with lawmakers failing to finalize fiscal plans before the end of the year, has weakened mainstream leaders from the political right hoping to keep Marine Le Pen’s National Rally at bay and win the Elysée Palace in the next presidential election.
Recent surveys by pollsters Odoxa and Ipsos show that both former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who leads the center-right party Horizons and has already declared his candidacy for the 2027 contest, and Bruno Retailleau, the head of the conservative Les Républicains, took hits to their popularity from the bruising budget negotiations.
“We’re caught between our relative opposition to a budget that worsens the deficit and our responsibility to give a budget to the country,” said Pierre-Henri Dumont, deputy secretary general of Les Républicains. “It’s complicated.”
Retailleau and Philippe attempted to cement their reputations as fiscally responsible leaders throughout the process, calling for spending cuts to rein in a budget deficit projected to come in at 5.4 percent of gross domestic product at the end of the year.
To that end, both came out against the social security budget, which passed by a razor-thin margin earlier this month. And they have both been dragged into the grueling and at times vaudevillian debate on a state budget, which lawmakers failed to enact before the new year. The government will now roll over the 2025 budget into next year until lawmakers approve a proper state budget for 2026.
“All the political leaders are clearly weakened by the budget talks,” said Bruno Jeanbart, an OpinionWay pollster. “They are striving for something that is in the national interest, but it is not in the interest of their parties.”
The far-right National Rally, France’s most popular political party by most indicators, also appeared to take a popularity hit during the budget process. But it remains at the top of most opinion polls.
“Weakening of leaders always benefits the National Rally, which has positioned itself outside of mainstream politics,” Jeanbart said.
The conservative dilemma
The presidential election is still more than a year away, but the budget debate could have been an opportunity for presidential hopefuls to stand out in an increasingly crowded field of candidates.
The 2027 contest looms so large that Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu blamed “partisan appetites” among possible candidates ahead of budget talks for the failure of his first minority government, which lasted just 14 hours.
Lecornu had said that the deficit for next year’s budget should not exceed 5 percent of GDP, but that target was repeatedly put in danger by compromises to secure the support of opposition parties, most notably the Socialists.
Such concessions in the state and social security budgets have made them indigestible for right-wing lawmakers who see reining in public spending as a top priority and the most efficient way to bring down the deficit.
Leaders such as Retailleau and Philippe have attempted to use the moment to take a principled stand in the hopes their bold moves would help them establish a reputation with the French public that will endure until campaign season gets into full swing.
But that political jockeying has put them at odds with some of their party rank and file, who are more open to compromise to get on with the job of voting a budget.
Having publicly slammed the social security bill as a “fiscal hold-up,” the hardline conservative Retailleau “was incensed” when 18 lawmakers from his party ignored his call to vote against the text, said a senior Les Républicains official granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Retailleau saw those voting in favor of the social security budget as committing “an act of defiance,” the official said.
Some of Philippe’s lawmakers also voted for the social security budget even though their party leader called on his troops to abstain.
The pollster Jeanbart said Philippe’s stand is likely to damage his prospects in the short term, as it complicates his efforts to broaden his base of support.
But for Laurent Marcangeli, a former minister and current lawmaker from Philippe’s Horizons party, standing by values of economic conservatism is essential at this moment, even if it’s unpopular.
“I’m convinced it’s going to help us in the long run,” he said.
Anthony Lattier contributed to this report.
French budget chaos hobbles right-wing presidential hopefuls
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