LONDON — Labour MPs know Keir Starmer is unpopular. On Thursday, actual voters will get a chance to show just how deep that discontent runs.
A by-election in the Greater Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton is being billed as a major test for the embattled British prime minister.
Once considered a safe seat for his ruling Labour Party, the constituency is now being challenged by populists on the right and left, and the race — triggered by an existing Labour MP stepping down on health grounds — has become a proxy for much wider concerns about Starmer’s leadership.
Here’s everything you need to know about the battle for Gorton and Denton.
Why it matters
Gorton and Denton is the prime minister’s biggest electoral test since last May, when Nigel Farage’s Reform UK snatched Runcorn and Helsby (also in north west England) off Labour by just six votes. On the same night, Reform also stormed into the lead in local elections across England.
In recent weeks, Starmer has lost key personnel, survived a call from Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar to resign, and has faced major questions over the short-lived appointment of Peter Mandelson as Britain’s ambassador in Washington, despite Mandelson’s friendship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Less than two years after a landslide general victory, his party is languishing in the polls.
To make it more dicey, this race also has a direct link to Starmer’s judgement: Last month, Labour top brass moved to block a potential Starmer rival, Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, from running as the party’s candidate.
A Burnham victory would have given him a seat in parliament from which to directly challenge Starmer if the time came. Starmer argued that letting Burnham run would be a distraction from his day job in Manchester and divert party resources.
But Burnham’s allies pushed back that blocking the return risks gifting Reform the seat.
How it went in 2024
A Labour hold in Gorton and Denton used to be pretty much guaranteed — even during the mid-term blues.
The late left-wing Labour MP Gerald Kaufman represented a previous incarnation of the seat, Manchester Gorton, for more than three decades until 2017.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won the newly drawn seat with 50.8 percent of the vote — and a majority of more than 13,000 over the second-placed Reform UK.
That a Labour victory is in even in doubt is a sign of just how difficult things are for Labour right now.
A win, however narrow, would be met with a huge sigh of relief in No. 10 Downing Street. But a strong show of support for populists could still give Labour strategists nightmares — whatever the result.
What a bad night for Labour would look like
Labour losing a second parliamentary constituency to Reform UK would be a terrible look for Starmer.
Matt Goodwin, Reform’s candidate in Gorton and Denton, is branding the campaign a referendum on the PM.
Starmer’s huge parliamentary majority means the party can still pass its legislative agenda (if it keeps its own troops in line). But there is no doubt a Reform win would put even more wind in Farage’s sails.
Labour MPs in “red wall” seats — a shorthand for traditionally working class Labour voting constituencies who have flirted with more right-wing parties in recent years — will be spooked by opinion polls which show they now face a strong threat from Farage.
What a really bad night for Labour would look like
Labour’s left-wing challengers in Gorton and Denton are the Greens. Zack Polanski’s eco-populist left-wing movement has thrown the kitchen sink at the campaign — quite literally, with local plumber Hannah Spencer standing for the party.
A Green victory would show Labour is losing votes on both the right and left of U.K. politics — and that voting for Starmer’s ruling party isn’t the only way to keep out Reform UK, as Starmer has claimed. It would also be the Greens’ first northern seat.
Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru positioned themselves as the anti-Reform force in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election last October, and managed to grab the seat from Labour.
Labour MPs may feel emboldened and push harder for a more left-wing administration — a move some may argue is incompatible with the more centrist Starmer remaining in post.
Crucial timings
Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 10 p.m. on Thursday. Votes will be counted overnight. A result should be declared around 4 a.m. — the exact timing depends on a multitude of factors, including the turnout (by-elections have fewer voters than a general election) and how close the result is.
There was a full recount in Runcorn and Helsby last May because the vote was so tight.
All of the 11 candidates — including the Monster Raving Loony Party’s Sir Oink A-Lot (no, really) — should stand on stage to hear the result declared. The winner traditionally gives a short acceptance speech.
The winning party’s leader will almost certainly race up to Manchester for a photocall to bask in their victory, and hail their campaigners’ hard yards.
Supporters of the losing candidates will lick their wounds with a postmortem about what went wrong. They will spin about how the granular detail of the contest can or cannot be extrapolated into a national poll.
Then the media circus will depart Gorton and Denton as the constituency’s new MP prepares for their life in Westminster.
Until we do it all again …
This by-election sets the scene for regional and national elections across Britain in May — an even bigger test of Starmer and Farage’s plans for power, and the Greens’ push to become a major force.
Scotland and Wales will elect new members of their devolved legislatures, and in England over 4,850 councilors will be chosen to run local administrations.
The turnout at local elections (and by-elections) is traditionally far lower than at a general elections — but it will be another indicator of the actual mood among voters motivated to cast a ballot.
Reform is hoping momentum from the Greater Manchester contest will help it win councils seats across the Midlands and northern England in places like Sunderland and Newcastle. The Greens are targeting inner London — once a bedrock of solid Labour support.
Losing a by-election is frustrating, but usually survivable for a party leader. But a by-election defeat combined with the loss of hundreds of Labour councilors in May would be a much harder state of affairs for Starmer to shake off.
How to watch Keir Starmer’s massive by-election test like a pro
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