BRUSSELS — Ukraine will get money from EU countries to fund its war effort even if Hungary and Slovakia continue to block a promised €90 billion loan, two EU diplomats told POLITICO.
EU leaders will meet for a summit in Brussels next week, hoping to convince Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico to stick to their promise to approve the loan, which is supposed to provide two-thirds of the money Ukraine needs to continue fighting the Russian invasion until the end of 2027.
But if the pair refuse to back down, Baltic and Nordic countries have a plan to give Ukraine enough money to keep it afloat through the first half of this year, said the two EU diplomats familiar with the discussions. They were granted anonymity to speak freely about the sensitive negotiations, as were others in this story.
The total amount being considered is €30 billion, another person with knowledge of the talks said. As these would be bilateral loans, they would not require EU approval.
Separately, Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen told his peers on Tuesday that his government has made provisions to send Kyiv €3.5 billion a year in bilateral support until 2029, two other diplomats told POLITICO.
Budapest, or any other EU capital, can block the €90 billion loan despite already agreeing to it in December because one of the bills that needs approval before the cash can be disbursed requires the approval of all member countries.
“It’s not the first time we are facing a similar kind of difficulties with Hungary,” the EU’s Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said in response to a question from POLITICO on Tuesday. “We will deliver on this loan one way or another.”
The idea of providing individual funding to Ukraine was already discussed before the December summit, at which all member countries’ leaders agreed to press ahead with one EU loan. The individual loans option was seen as unpalatable at the time because it undermined the EU’s solidarity with Ukraine and exposed deep splits in the bloc.
But if Orbán refuses to drop his opposition, that might be the only way forward.
Ukraine has money until May
Kyiv’s funding needs have eased after the International Monetary Fund approved an $8.1 billion loan late last month, disbursing $1.5 billion straight away. The country should have enough money to stay solvent until early May, four people familiar with Kyiv’s finances told POLITICO.
Previous EU estimates had indicated Kyiv would go broke at the end of March, putting it at a major disadvantage against Russian forces and amid ongoing U.S.-led peace talks, and therefore increasing the urgency of the €90 billion EU lifeline.
The loan seemed locked in until late January, when a Russian drone attack damaged the Druzhba pipeline, which transports Russian oil across Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia. Budapest and Bratislava are exempt from EU sanctions on Russian oil.
Orbán accused Ukraine of intentionally delaying repairs to the pipeline for political reasons, and reneged on the commitment he made at the December summit to wave the Ukraine loan through. The Hungarian leader also blocked the EU’s 20th sanctions package against Russia, which requires unanimous support from all 27 leaders to pass.
Orbán, who faces a crucial national election on April 12, has been campaigning on an anti-Ukraine platform. His political party, Fidesz, is behind the opposition Tisza in the polls by a wide margin.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has denied the accusation that Kyiv is refusing to fix the pipeline for political reasons, last week told reporters that while he did not want to do so, he could get oil flowing through the Druzhba “in a month or a month and a half” — which would be just after the Hungarian election.
Zelenskyy last month told reporters including POLITICO that Ukraine wasn’t fixing the pipeline because Russia had targeted it repeatedly, including while maintenance workers were on-site repairing it.
Waiting for the Hungarian election
The calculation in both Kyiv and Brussels is that if Orbán loses the election, opposition leader Péter Magyar may be more amenable to approving the loan to Ukraine, particularly if the Druzhba pipeline is fixed or if Hungary receives some other carrot from the EU, according to three of the diplomats.
While Magyar has made critical statements about Ukraine during the election campaign and — like Orbán — has ruled out troops or weapons deliveries, he has also recognized Russia as the aggressor in the war. The diplomats said they hoped he could be motivated by the desire to have frozen EU funds for Hungary released.
Another potential carrot: Hungary has applied for €16 billion in loans from the EU’s SAFE program, which provides cheap money to countries buying weapons in bulk. The European Commission has yet to approve its application.
If Orbán defies the polls and wins the election, the EU is hoping that he will step out of the way because he will no longer need to whip up anti-Ukrainian sentiment to win over voters, three of the diplomats said.
Brussels views Slovakia’s Fico, who has teamed up with Orbán to block the loan, as less of an obstacle, two other EU officials said. Fico on Sunday vowed to block the loan unless the Druzhba pipeline is repaired, even if Orbán loses the election.
Fico met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Paris on Tuesday on the sidelines of a Nuclear Energy Summit, and appeared to backtrack from his combative position. In a video on social media, he said the two had “discussed the need to restore the transit of Russian oil through Ukrainian territory to Slovakia,” adding: “I am glad that on this issue, we share the same view with the European Commission.”
An EU official said when it comes to convincing Fico to play ball, “we’re getting there.”
Gabriel Gavin and Esther Webber contributed reporting.
Europe’s plan to keep Ukraine afloat — even if Hungary keeps blocking €90B loan
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