BRUSSELS — Moscow’s shadow fleet is back in the EU’s crosshairs.
Brussels sees the opportunity to prepare another round of sanctions against Russia, and the loose network of aging, opaquely owned tankers used to move Russian oil around the world is likely to be a key target, European diplomats and officials told POLITICO.
Tightening the screws on the fleet will help choke off one of the Kremlin’s most important revenue streams — and increase pressure on Vladimir Putin to drop his maximalist demands in any Ukraine peace deal, EU officials said.
Expected in late June or early July, the 21st sanctions package will also likely target Russian banks, financial institutions and military-industrial companies as well as firms selling stolen Ukrainian grain, according to seven EU officials and diplomats with knowledge of the discussions, who were granted anonymity to discuss the preparations.
Officials also see a chance to move ahead with sanctions previously blocked by the government of Viktor Orbán, the former Hungarian prime minister. Among them are measures targeting senior members of the Russian Orthodox Church, notably its leader Patriarch Kirill, a close ally of Putin’s who has lauded the Ukraine invasion.
The European Commission may also revive the idea of a ban on maritime services for Russian vessels, which has so far been blocked by Malta and Greece, one of the diplomats argued.
“Following Hungarian elections, there is a new momentum” for sanctions, chief EU diplomat Kaja Kallas told reporters after a recent gathering of ministers in Luxembourg. “We should revisit sanctions that have been on the table and not agreed before, but also we should move on with the new sanctions’ package.
‘Worst ever’
The thinking in Brussels is simple — Russia’s economy is “the worst internally it has been since the start of the war,” one senior EU official said. “It really is the moment to push for more because Russia is not doing well.”
Russia was suffering from a “static inflationary shock,” EU economy czar Valdis Dombrovskis suggested to POLITICO. “That’s why we are very much emphasizing in our G7 engagements, in bilateral engagements with U.S. representatives that now is not the time to weaken pressure on Russia.”
Ukraine — accused by U.S. President Donald Trump of not holding any “cards” in its negotiations with Russia — now has far more leverage, or cards, than it did even a year ago, officials argued.
They point to a recently agreed €90 billion EU loan, Ukraine’s battlefield advances, the country’s ability to produce its own long-distance weapons and the psychological impact of disrupting Moscow’s May 9 “Victory Parade” celebrations as contributing to a positive dynamic.
“The €90 billion and the sanctions work, it gives momentum and puts Ukraine in a much better place,” said a senior national security official from a NATO country. “It’s important that this momentum exists.”
Kallas and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are determined to double down on that momentum and “want a big package” of sanctions, said a second senior EU official directly involved in preparations.
Summer peace deal?
Kallas will on Monday, as EU foreign ministers gather in Brussels, unveil sanctions targeting nearly two dozen Russians who facilitated the abduction of Ukrainian children. But discussions on the 21st sanctions package are just getting started, with the ministers simply due to provide initial input.
Ukraine’s allies argue that a summer wallop could work in Kyiv’s favor, as Hungary’s new prime minister, Péter Magyar, is in power, there may be a durable ceasefire in Iran and the November’s midterm U.S. elections could refocus American minds on the peace process.
“Iran is taking still a lot of the bandwidth, not least because you have the same characters operating involved in those negotiations,” said the senior defense official, referring to Trump-appointed negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
“But Ukraine has been making gains on the battlefield and this seems to have been noticed by Trump.”
The U.S. president — who has see-sawed between backing Ukraine and implementing measures that help Russia, such as lifting sanctions on Russian oil — praised Kyiv’s military as being “better than any of our NATO allies” during a recent interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.
And on Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he expects Witkoff and Kushner to be in Kyiv at the end of spring. Such a visit, unconfirmed for now, would mark the first time in months that the U.S. seriously engages in the Russia-Ukraine peace process.
“Now we should be pushing,” said Mika Aaltola, a Finnish member of the European Parliament who cited “amazing results” on the battlefield by Ukraine as a key factor in changing the narrative around Ukraine’s negotiating position.
More responsibility
Increasingly, the Europeans are not content to wait until the Americans are ready to engage.
Speaking to Welt am Sonntag, part of the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, which includes POLITICO, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said “we are prepared to take on more responsibility and are currently discussing this with the U.S. and Ukraine.”
Europe’s bid to enter the negotiations centers on the so-called E3 format, which comprises France, Germany and the United Kingdom. “We are making a new attempt to re-enter negotiations,” Wadephul said.
Other Ukraine allies are also on board to stand behind Kyiv.
“We will continue to stand with the EU and other partners in supporting Ukraine’s defence and resilience,” Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide told POLITICO, adding that such support was “urgent.”
Putin’s shadow fleet faces fresh EU sanctions blitz
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