LONDON — “Across the country, the Conservatives are coming back,” declared a beaming opposition leader Kemi Badenoch earlier this month — after her party lost 801 council members in England, 19 seats in Scotland and 22 in Wales.
Behind her, the party faithful cheered as she bellowed “Conservative hold” rather than “Conservative win.” But the party that was running Britain less than two years ago is now so depleted that merely clinging on in loyal areas is now labeled as a victory.
Since then, Keir Starmer’s government has had a torrid few weeks and now faces a simmering leadership challenge after a forced by-election in June. In any normal circumstances, the official opposition party — the Conservatives — should benefit. Yet right-wing challenger party Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has maintained its lead in the polls.
The Tories are currently polling at 19 percent, according to YouGov — the same number the party was on before almost a quarter of the Labour Party called on its own prime minister to resign over his short-lived appointment of Peter Mandelson as Britain’s ambassador to the United States.
As Scarlett Maguire, pollster and founder of Merlin Strategy, said: “The Conservatives are in a very difficult position tactically. When they criticize Labour — they spent a lot of time working on the Mandelson story — who did it benefit? It benefited Reform.”
Badenoch and her top shadow ministers think they can turn that around. The Conservative Party now has a plan to rebuild after a devastating loss in 2024. In the latest episode of the Westminster Insider podcast, POLITICO spoke to a dozen senior people in the party about how they hope to pull themselves back from the brink.
Competent, and maybe boring
First up is demonstrated what one senior shadow cabinet member — granted anonymity like others in this article to speak freely on internal matters — described as “boring competence.”
“Cut taxes, cut welfare, change tack on net zero. Three cornerstone things which we can keep banging on about, which will make us the alternative when Labour keep raising taxes and Reform blows themselves up,” they said of the Tory pitch.
Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride — effectively Badenoch’s second-in-command — disagreed with the “boring” characterization but he admitted: “We’ve come up with robust, properly thought through savings and we’ve recognized we need to stay paying down the deficit and ultimately the debt. Some people may say that’s all a bit dull and boring, but actually coming up with good plans is increasingly important.”
Second, the Conservatives are hoping to win back young voters — focusing on areas such as student loans or what Stride calls “duff degrees” which equip graduates badly for a career path.
The stakes are high. Yet 30-something-year-old voters might not be able to save the party. “It’s a good plan, but it still doesn’t deal with your fundamental problem that you’ve ceased talking to large parts of the country,” pollster Maguire told the podcast. She warned against focusing on smaller voter demographics which consign the Tories to being “a sort of regional party.”
Fight for the right
The most important part of a potential Tory reboot is the “fight for the right” — trying to convince Reform voters tempted by Farage to come back to the fold.
One Conservative adviser said: “Elections are still won in the middle ground. We need to sit back and let Labour implode and then put our plan into action.
“But things like immigration policy are really hard for us. Reform is out there promising truly undeliverable things but with our record it’s hard to convince people we will be the party to get immigration down.” The Tories remain haunted by the “Boriswave,” a term thrown at a surge in immigration numbers following changes made under Boris Johnson’s premiership.
The next big test of the Badenoch revival strategy comes at a by-election in Aberdeen South next month, where one member of the shadow cabinet said there is “real hope.”
“Kemi’s been up there quite a lot,” the same person added. “It’s one of the seats she’s visited more often than a lot of others.”
Oil and gas is the backbone of Aberdeen’s economy — and the Conservative party is hoping Badenoch’s position on net zero could, at the very least, bump them from third place in 2024, to a close second after the Scottish National Party.
Winning a by-election could also buoy party spirits in the midst of the reboot plan. The same person quoted above said: “Coming close would be good. Winning would be amazing. If the Tories start to gain seats in by-elections, then anything is possible”.
The Tories think they’re onto a winning plan — even as they keep losing
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