LONDON — Labour Party officials are now less likely to block leadership frontrunner Andy Burnham from returning to parliament after bruising election results last week, a member of the party’s ruling body has suggested.
Officers on Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) voted 8-1 in January to bar Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester who is widely expected to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer, from applying to run in a parliamentary by-election. Starmer was one of the eight officers who blocked him.
But another of the eight NEC officers said Monday that colleagues’ are “reassessing” their old loyalties as they decide whether to block Burnham a second time.
Abdi Duale told a post-election webinar hosted by the firm FTI Consulting: “Of course, the leader has influence over how the NEC votes. But I do think that influence is diminished by looking at the results and thinking, well, you know, the prime minister is probably not going to take us into the next election. So I imagine colleagues will be weighing that up, because I think old loyalties that existed before May 7 are all being reassessed.”
Any change of opinion among the 10 NEC officers will be critical to Starmer’s future because their view is likely to decide whether Burnham can return and stage a leadership challenge.
Duale, a senior public affairs director at FTI, added: “This is now terminal for the party, and I think all of us will make that decision based on what’s in the party’s best interest, as opposed to blind loyalty to any particular leader.”
Burnham has not launched a second attempt to return to parliament and there is no vacant seat. However, four allies of the Greater Manchester mayor said a specific MP has been identified who is willing to stand down and create a vacancy.
Two other people with knowledge of conversations on the NEC, granted anonymity to speak frankly, said some NEC officers are moving away from wanting to block Burnham.
One of the two people said NEC members have been talking individually since Thursday’s elections, which saw Labour lose control of the Welsh parliament for the first time and lose 1,496 council seats in England. There is a “feeling that if the country is telling us that’s who they want. It isn’t in our interest to ignore the public,” they added.
The other of the two people said a shift started when Labour lost February’s Gorton and Denton by-election — in which Burnham was blocked from standing — and had accelerated since Thursday. “A shift has begun. I don’t think it has shifted yet. I think some of it will depend on what happens in the next few hours and days,” they said. “I think the question is whether No. 10 [Downing Street] has any political capital any more to block anything.”
Three other people with knowledge of conversations on the NEC said they believed opinion could shift in favor of allowing Burnham, but they did not know if it would be enough to tip the balance of votes in his favor. One said: “I just think you can never tell until it’s an actual moment of decision.”
Members will also look to the private view of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, who currently holds the rotating chair of the NEC.
NEC officers blocked Burnham in January on the basis that a candidacy would trigger an expensive and distracting by-election for his Greater Manchester mayoralty.
Any future vote on Burnham would again be taken by the 10-strong officers’ group, unless the officers decided to refer it to the full NEC of 41 people.
Even then, Burnham will face several hurdles before he can become an MP and therefore be eligible to challenge Starmer for the leadership.
Those include being selected as Labour’s candidate and then winning the seat against rival parties such as the left-wing Greens and right-wing Reform UK.
Some of Burnham’s supporters had been hoping to take advantage of NEC elections this summer that may shift the ruling body leftwards. However, those new NEC members will only take up their posts at September’s party conference. Likewise, the membership of the officers’ group is only due to change in a series of rolling updates between September and January.
Former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, another potential leadership contender, said Sunday that Burnham “should never have been blocked.”
Starmer told journalists Monday: “Any future decision is for the NEC. Andy is doing a great job as mayor in Manchester and I actually work really well with Andy.”
Sam Blewett contributed reporting.
Labour officials ‘backing away’ from blocking return of Andy Burnham
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